Google Trend Analysis of Emerging and Long-established Substance Use in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Background: Methamphetamine (“Ice drug”) has emerged as the prominent substance of concern in Sri Lanka's illegal drug landscape. This trend calls for comprehensive efforts to combat its impact on Sri Lanka’s community. However, the act of searching for drugs on Google potentially signifies heightened interest in other addictive substances and underscores the urgency of preventive actions. Objectives: To discern and analyze the prevailing trend of Google search within Sri Lankan regarding electronic-cigarettes and methamphetamine, compared to long-established substances (i.e., cigarettes, alcohol, and heroin). Through analyses of the search behavior related to these terms, the research seeks to shed light on the evolving patterns and interests of the populace. Methods: Google Trends data were extracted after the date of its algorithm modifications (2022 January 1). The search parameters encompassed "electronic cigarette", "methamphetamine", "ice drug", “cigarettes”, “alcohol”, and “heroin”. Monthly search counts were meticulously computed across the 19 months, facilitating a comprehensive comparison of the respective trends for each search topic using regression coefficient, means and standard deviations. This methodological approach ensured up-to-date and relevant insights into the search behavior of these topics. Results: For the Google Trend search criteria, a rigorous filtration process yielded 83 days of data from January 2022 to July 2023, calculating average monthly popularity scores. Notably, the calculated averages for "ice-drug," "methamphetamine," and "electronic cigarette" were 5.7 (SD=6.6), 24.0 (SD=13.3), and 45.5 (SD=18.0), respectively. Concurrently, the popularity trends for these keywords were 0.18, 0.82, and 3.05, respectively. Google search for cigarettes, alcohol, and heroin did not show any noticeable change during this period. Conclusions: Google Trend analysis underscores "electronic cigarette" as the dominant search trend among individuals exploring addictive substances in Sri Lanka, despite the surge in interest surrounding "ice drug" and "methamphetamine" in the latter part of 2022. Notable trends were not seen with other substances due to limitations in search algorithm and potential confounding factors. Google Trend data can provide insights into primary prevention of emerging drugs.