Abstract:
Fertility is the main factor in human reproduction, influencing various outcomes.
Teenagers, while biologically mature enough to engage in intercourse and become
pregnant, may lack the psychological maturity to handle the responsibilities of an
active sexual life. Global health recognises teenage pregnancy as a challenge. In Sri
Lanka, traditional law allows females under 12 years old to marry despite the legal
age of 18. According to the Ministry of Health, Sri Lanka (2022), poverty, poor
education, fewer employment opportunities, a knowledge gap, and misconceptions
about contraception methods cause teenage pregnancy. Pregnancy and childbirth are
the leading causes of death among females aged 15 - 19, with higher health risks.
The study aimed to identify the trend of age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) in Sri
Lankan females aged 15-19 and forecast future ASFR. ASFR data related to the age
category from 1960 to 2021 were extracted from the World Bank Development
Indicator as the secondary data source. Time series analysis was utilised with RStudio
statistical software. There was a decreasing trend in ASFR over the period.
The Zivot & Andew unit root test confirmed that the series was stationary at the
second difference. The orders of ARIMA model parameters were selected using ACF
and PACF plots. The most fitted model was chosen based on the Akaike Information
Criterion (AIC). The estimated parameters for the fitted model ARIMA (0, 2, 1) were
-0.6844 for MA (1) with a standard error of 0.1270. The fitted model was
1 0.6844 t t Y − = − . The estimated ASFR (15-19) in Sri Lanka from 2022 to 2026 were
13.3318, 12.5633, 11.7947, 11.0260, and 10.2575. It is recommended to implement
reproductive health and maternity care programmes focusing on the decreasing
trends in ASFR. A comprehensive strategy should be devised to educate teenagers
about contraceptive usage, prevent unexpected births, and enhance their educational
prospects.
