Design and implementation of maize (Zea mays L.) growth simulation model for Northwest region in China

Abstract

A temperature driven maize growth simulation model, NWMSim, was developed by analyzing the quantitative growth of maize on a daily time step and emphasizing the yield prediction with special focus on Northwest region in China. It simulates daily growth and development, total accumulation of dry matter and final grain yield for a single crop season. The simulation runs through seven major phenological stages within the crop cycle including sowing date, germination and emergence, three-leaf unfolding, jointing, booting, spinning and harvesting. Primarily the model development was based on the Growing Degree Days (GDD). The model validation was done using five years field observations (2005, 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2011) collected from Yangling in Northwest region in China. Simulated and observed data were statistically analyzed and compared. The grain yield was slightly over estimated for three cropping cycles (2006, 2007 and 2011) however the coefficient of determination (R2=0.94) has shown a positive agreement. The obtained all results have shown an accurate agreement between simulated and observed values for both development and growth variables. Based on the results and the comparisons of simulated and observed values, it can be used as a prediction tool in maize cultivation and also an economic management tool in economic planning at regional level.