Abstract:
The Government is promoting the development of agriculture sector with the slogan
of “Let us grow more to uplift the nation”. This study was carried out to analysis the
growth performance of rice sector, and to identify the appropriate model to predict
the future trend of the sector. The study was done mainly on the basis of secondary
data. The growth performance was analyzed by considering four variables 1. sown
extent, 2. harvested extent, 3. total production and 4. productivity. The behaviour of
these different variables was tested through scatted plot diagram with time. Based
on the behaviour of the variable, different time series (TS) models were tested.
Sown extent and harvested extent did not show a strong relationship with time. The
average sown extent and harvested extent recorded as 858.28 and 813.37 ha
thousand, respectively. However the total production (thousand t) and productivity
(kg per ha) have increased significantly with time. Therefore, the responsible factor
to increase the total rice production was increment of the productivity. Cubic model
was the most suitable to predict the total production arid productivity which were Y
= 1557.82 + 173.52t - 11.H t2 + 0.24t3 (r2 = 89.51) and Y = 2227.67+ 210.13 t -
11.19t2+ 0.22t3(r2 = 95.20) respectively. In.this context, it is possible to meet future
demand for rice through increasing the land productivity by adopting the best field
practices.
