Abstract:
Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases in the child-hood in
both developing and developed countries. The objective of this study was to
examine the relationship between the childhood asthma and the risk factors
among children aged 5-12 years in the Colombo Municipal Council area
using Bayesian inferential method. In Bayesian inferential methods Gibbs
sampling algorithm was used to select samples from posterior distribution
of logistic coefficient under non-informative prior using WinBUGS 1.4
software. In checking convergence “live trace plots” of sample of
parameters were obtained. Also the simulation was run until the Monte
Carlo error for each parameter of interest is less than about 5% of the
sample standard deviation. Then mean standard deviation Monte Carlo
error and some percentiles of posterior distribution were computed.
According to the study, asthma was more likely to occur among boys than
girls (Odds Ratio [OR] =1.48, 95% Credible Interval [Cl] =1.09 to 1.98).
Children those who do not have allergies (OR=0.59, 0=0.39 to 0.90) and
children those who have had no family history of asthma (OR=0.27,
0=0.19 to 0.36) have a lower risk of having asthma. If the parents’ income
is high then possibility to getting exposed to diseases becomes low.
Children, who used mattresses to sleep, have a possibility of getting
exposed to disease asthma. If children live with more number of persons in
the house, the possibility of occurring disease is low.
