Abstract:
Sri Lanka’s coconut industry plays a vital role in its national exports, with coconut
kernel-based products accounting for a significant share of agricultural exports.
However, maintaining and enhancing the global competitiveness of these products
remains a persistent challenge. This study aims to address this issue by examining
the export competitiveness and market potential of nine coconut kernel-based
products in Sri Lanka, using both primary and secondary data. The export competitiveness
of each product was calculated using annual secondary data from
2005 to 2024 through the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage index,
while future trends were forecasted using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average model. Primary data were collected through a structured questionnaire
distributed among coconut exporters to identify key constraints affecting export
performance and market potential. The results indicate that desiccated coconut
and coconut oil are highly competitive, although their competitiveness is projected
to decline. Conversely, exports of virgin coconut oil, coconut milk powder,
liquid coconut milk, coconut flour, and coconut cream demonstrate competitive
performance with upward projections. These products are increasingly capturing
attention in global health-conscious and plant-based food markets due to their
nutritional and functional benefits. However, coconut butter and coconut water
are not competitive in the international market. Survey responses highlighted key
challenges limiting market potential, including high export costs, supply chain instability,
exchange rate fluctuations, regulatory barriers, and limited capacity for
market and product diversification. These findings provide valuable insights into
future trends in export competitiveness and key challenges in enhancing market
potential. They also offer a strategic direction for policymakers and industry
stakeholders to enhance export competitiveness through cost reduction, innovation,
infrastructure development, and market diversification strategies, thereby
strengthening the long-term performance of Sri Lanka’s coconut kernel-based export
sector.
