COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS COUNTERFACTUALS: AN OVERVIEW OF POSTHARVEST VALUE CHAIN ACTORS IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This investigation is borne out of the assumption that postharvest value chain actors experienced disruptions which are fallouts of the COVID-19 restrictions or otherwise. It examines the degree to which changes in livelihood and activities of postharvest value chain actors (farmers, processors, marketers, transporters and consumers) may be attributed to restrictions or the inter-play of intervening factors. The study is cross-sectional and employed the micro approach as its estimation methodology in 18 states across 6 geopolitical zones of the country. Data were obtained through key informant interviews, focus group discussions (FGDs), questionnaires and interview guides. The purposive selection of 16 states with a high incidence of COVID-19 according to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and formal restriction along with 2 states with no formal restriction as counterfactual preceded the random selection of 108,000 respondents across 5 categories of postharvest value chain actors from sampling frame provided by Agricultural Development Programme (ADP). Data components were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Results showed that the difference in earnings was significant (P ≤ 0.05) in restriction states but not significant (P ≤ 0.05) in counterfactual states; the difference in expenditure on food was not significant (P ≤ 0.05) in both restriction and counterfactual states; the difference in wages paid to work hands was not significant (P ≤ 0.05) in both restriction and the Cross-River States, however, it was in Kogi State; the difference in number of work hands employed was significant (P ≤ 0.05) in restriction States but not significant (P ≤ 0.05) in counterfactual states. This implies that the restrictions affected Nigerians in general irrespective of their restriction statuses because the effects of COVID-19 2restrictions in 34 states and the FCT overshadowed the non-restrictions in 2 states.